Wednesday, July 2, 2008

The pressure might be mounting

I didn't realize this until today, but there wasn't a single U.S.-based IPO launched in the second quarter of this year. That hasn't happened since Carter was in the White House and only a few people even knew were Iran was. Obviously, people are waiting for conditions to be better than they are now, hoping to stretch their current dollars out before looking for new money. But someone is going to take the leap. Some company is going to decide that they need to expand and that even a less than spectacular IPO is better than nothing. And word will get around about how they did... I suspect the first one in will come up a bit short of hopes, but a little better than expectations. Then a few more will make an attempt, and they'll do better than they had expected. And then momentum will start to build, and the general market will start to turn around.

How long? That's anybody's guess, I suppose. My guess is that we're looking at the first brave IPO will come along about mid-third quarter. A few more will pop in before the end of the year, and then the first quarter will show some major activity. That means the housing market recovery is still about 9 or 10 months away, and in the meantime the employment market will go through ups and downs, but nothing all that dramatic.

I welcome your opinions! Please comment.

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