Now that hardware doesn't matter ...

Remember the big moments in mobile technology?

My first cell phone - actually it was a car phone - could hold 99 speed dial numbers, and I occasionally would have trouble in traffic when the cord got caught up in the gear shift of my 1988 Ford Ranger. We've come a long way.

The smart phone changed a lot for us. Its introduction was an inflection point in the way we used mobile technology. It was no longer just a phone, but it became a means for managing communications across multiple fronts. We could handle email, as well as voice. We could manage our calendars and contact lists. However, all of those functions were still tied ... one might even say held prisoner to ... the device itself.

But that has changed. The features and functionality of a device are no longer controlled by the manufacturer. Even though Apple tightly regulates what you can put the iPhone, it remains a highly customizable tool. I can buy that applications of my choosing for a Droid, making it do things that another Droid won't.

This is why we are starting to hear rumblings about speed. And I'm not referring to network speed. LG claims to have the Fastest phone at CES 2011 in the Optimus 2X. Samsung and Google are touting the processing power of the soon-to-be-released Nexus S. Manufacturers are talking about processor speed in the same way that we talked about it 10 years ago.

The mobile market is moving away from hardware differentiation at a high rate of speed. It no longer matters that I have a Motorola Droid and my wife has an LG Ally. And I won't care who makes my next phone. I'll care about chip speed and memory.

The great news in all of this is that it opens up avenues for businesses to set themselves apart with mobile technology. Five years ago, it was cost-prohibitive to write a mobile application, because the hardware changed before you got it finished. Now, you can write an Android-based app and be confident that it will bring value for at least a few years. If you haven't started thinking about how your customers can interact with your company using mobile technology, start now.

Competition for the iPad is coming

Back in April, when the iPad first hit the market, I suggested that this revolutionary device represents a turning point in mobile computing. For that to happen, of course, other manufacturers will have to try and beat Apple at its own game. Samsung appears to be the first to enter the fray, introducing the Galaxy Tab last week. The company expects to launch the device in European markets by mid-October and in the US market in the months that follow.

The most obvious difference between the iPad and the Galaxy Tab is the size, with the Galaxy being much smaller - a 7" screen size. Samsung has positioned the product to be easily carried in pocket or purse. Of course, the iPad has a huge head start in available applications and adoption. But the Galaxy is based on the Android v2.2. operating system, so we shouldn't expect that lead to last forever.

So the Android-based phones have proven to be worthy competitors to the iPhone. Will Android-based tablets enjoy similar success. I believe that the answer will be yes. The price point for the Galaxy is expected to be $200-300 ... or about the same as the entry-level iPad. It won't have the same functionality or elegance as the iPad for another year or so, but neither did the Android-based phones.

Eventually, I truly believe that the mobile computing market will look a lot like the desktop market. Apple will consistently own a substantial minority - 10-15% - of the market. Users who value innovation and elegance will make up their loyal and passionate base. The rest of the market ... those who value economy and utility ... will gravitate towards the Android.

The Galaxy Tab Homepage
Warning: the music is loud and little annoying

The browser of the future

Google's Chrome browser hit the market just over a year and a half ago and it is fast becoming the replacement of choice for people seeking to break free from Internet Explorer. As the table presented here shows, Microsoft's flagship browser (regardless of version) has been steadily losing market share for a long time. Firefox had earned most of IE's losses by virtue of its superior interface, its innovative tabbed browsing, and - of course - all of those fantastic, free add-ons.

But while IE continues to lose ground, users are no longer defaulting to Firefox. Chrome gained a much larger slice of the market last month than Firefox. Certainly, Google has done its normal, excellent work of promotion. But there is more to the story than superior hype.

For one, Chrome is fast. Really, really fast. On every one of my PCs, Chrome launches and loads pages far more quickly than Firefox. Second, Chrome's exceedingly simple interface provides nearly an inch of additional rendering space on the screen. And of course, Google is encouraging their developers to make the application more useful everyday.

Firefox is still my preferred browser, but I suspect that may change in the coming months.

Credit where credit is due ...
Visit Net Market Share for more information about global browser usage.

What the iPad means at first

So it's been a few weeks now since Apple's iPad went on the market. And later this week, a more useful 3G version hits the streets. Last week's Earnings Call (which took place on April 20, 2010) shed little light on the sales performance of the device, except to say that Apple's executives aren't displeased by the early returns. Of course, the Wall Street Journal's Walter Mossberg raved (link for subscribers only) about the device, but for years he's been a loyal Apple user who decries the IT management's resistance to his favorite machines.

So now what?
The buzz and hype were up to Apple's extraordinary standards. The design and aesthetics of the machine are there, as well. But will it truly be a turning point in personal computing?

My opinion ... yes, but perhaps not in the way most people might expect.

The iPod completely changed the way people buy music. I don't know anyone under the age of 70 that still buys CDs. That's an entire industry virtually eliminated in under 10 years. Portable CD players are so rare that it's surprising to see one outside of a museum. Of course, the iPod wasn't the first MP3 player ... but it was the first to be truly easy to use.

Which brings me back to the iPad.
Tablet PCs have been around for a long time. Through the years several attempts to make a good one have met with limited, albeit genuine, success. But they were heavy, bulky and unintuitive. The iPad is none of those things. And the other manufacturers will figure out how to make their version of it. Windows 7 already has important design features that bring touch screen technology closer to the consumer. Mobile phones, like the iPhone, the Droid (my personal favorite) and the BlackBerry Storm (not a great phone), have proven that touch screen technology can be put in consumers' hands for a reasonable price.

So, all of the pieces are in place and the iPad has played the critical role of causing people in the real world to pay attention to tablet PCs. The big question is ... when will all of that innovation translate to the corporate environment? Will tablet PCs replace laptops and notebook computers? Will their budgets have enough room in them for experimentation and failures? Given our uncertain economic climate, I think it will be another 12-18 months before we see that start happening. That will give manufacturers time to try and fail and try again. And then, we'll see the true impact of the iPad.

Apple Inc.: AAPL (NASDAQ)

The search engine wars are over

Someone needs to break the news to Microsoft, Yahoo!, Ask, and even the venerable Yellow Pages. No one out there says they need to "Bing" something or other. Google has become a verb in our lexicon. And even though Yahoo! has been around longer, and even though Bing is getting decent reviews, more users Google topics on the web than all of the other search engines ... combined!.

Yesterday, Neilsen Reported December Search Rankings for the United States. Google was the search engine of choice for more than 67% of all internet queries, with over 6.6 million uses during December. Yahoo! came in a distant second, with about 1.4 million uses, accounting for just over 14% share. Bing and Live Search combined for just under a million searches. But that doesn't seem to justify the millions that Microsoft has invested in promoting the service. Especially when you consider that, back in June, Google's share was actually less than it was in December. Sharon Gaudin, a contributor over at ComputerWorld reports that Google's search engine market share was only 61% in Neilsen's June report.

The takeaway for me is that, when it comes to Search Engine Optimization (SEO), don't bother with trying to improve results on any search engine besides Google. The war is over. Google wins. If the web is an important lead source for your business, then focus your energy and get your Google results right. And any SEO expert that wants to do otherwise is wasting your money.

Microsoft still dominant in web browsers

With today's release of Firefox 3.5.6, I thought it would be worthwhile to look at the changes in market share for the major web browsers. Over the past three months, the data at W3Counter indicate that we seem to have entered a period of detente.

This chart shows that much of the bluster about Chrome's market share versus Firefox versus IE is just white noise. Over the past three months, Internet Explorer 8 has been becoming the most popular Microsoft browser, as well as the most used browser over all. While its 3-month average is still just below IE7, the trend is unmistakable. In aggregate, the family of IE browsers was the choice of over 51% of all web users.

Firefox is still the dominant #2 browser, with over 31% of web use being conducted with the popular open source Mozilla product. Google's Chrome has rapidly laid hold of just over 4.5% of browser use, and is holding steady at that mark.

There are web developers that insist on ignoring Microsoft's position in the market. Any expectations of significant success for their application are unrealistic.

Read more about ...
Firefox 3.5.6 patch at CNET.com
Global Web Stats at W3Counter.com

Google and IBM: the best cloud solutions

Evans Data Corporation, a software development research firm, conducted a study earlier this year to identify the best public and private cloud solutions. The company surveyed hundreds of software developers, asking them to rate cloud platforms across a number of areas, including of scalability, reliability, security, and openness.

The clear winner, in the public space, is Google. 31% of respondents view Google as providing the most scalable offering, with Amazon coming in at a distant second with less than 18% of respondents.

In the private sphere, IBM leads the pack, especially in areas of security, receiving a top ranking from 21.7% of respondents. The race for the top spot is much closer, with Amazon earning the confidence of 20.2% of the responding audience.

These results confirm Google's market leadership in the cloud computing space. I believe this will prove to be an important, long-term revenue source for the company, as well as a reliable solutions for small to mid-sized businesses.

Read more ...
Study: Developers Pick Google, IBM as Top Cloud Platforms by Darryl K. Taft, eWeek
The survey report (free with registration)

Droid sales start strong

Industry analysts are reporting that Verizon Wireless and Motorola have likely sold between 700,000 and 800,000 Droids since the device was launched in early November. In his research note, equity analyst Mark Sue (RBC Capital Markets), says that sales of "1 million Motorola Droids [is] achievable for 4Q09." This would be a tremendous milestone, not only for Motorola and Verizon Wireless, but even more so for Google, whose operating system underpins the Droid.

Whatever new ground the iPhone has broken, its position of market dominance is about to be overwhelmed by this device. AT&T simply does not have the market coverage that Verizon Wireless has. And while the Droid isn't quite as good as the iPhone, history has shown that consumers will gladly sacrifice elegance for cost and utility. This is the same story as Mac versus the PC that played out in the 1990's. The old Mac operating system was vastly superior to the DOS-based PC, and later to the early Windows machines. But at less than half the price, the market clearly voted in favor of Microsoft and has only taken brief glances back.

Again, the iPhone is a better device. But in the end, that simply will not matter.

Source: Big marketing budget drives Moto Droid sales
by Marguerite Reardon, Senior Writer, CNET

Google Dashboard gives you control

On Thursday, Google announced on The Official Google Blog the release of Google Dashboard. If you have a Google account (through GMail, Google Talk, Blogger, etc.), then the company has been collecting a fairly comprehensive history. They have a record of your recent web searches, your RSS subscriptions, your chat history ... you name it, they've recorded it.

Understandably, this has folks a bit nervous.

It has me nervous.

The Google Dashboard is a step towards giving users the ability to see what information Google has collected, delete it (if desired) and to stop the company from collecting it. To use it, go to Your Dashboard after you've logged into your Google account. You'll be glad you did.

Better maps for your phone

It is illegal, in the state of Maryland, to text while driving. This is a good thing, right? What about reading a map? What if the map is on your cell phone??

Today, Google unveiled the beta version of Google Maps Navigation for Android 2.0 devices. Essentially, Google is trying to get into the fast-growing GPS system market. Now I've seen turn-by-turn directions delivered to a cell phone. One of my colleagues has a Sprint phone with a GPS application loaded onto it. It's very, very slick. And it has an entirely different set of benefits than a car-mounted device.

Features:
Screen size: Advantage car-mount
Portability: Advantage cell phone
Flexibility: Advantage cell phone
Adaptability: Push

These are my opinions, and I'd love to hear yours!

I saw this at ...
Google drives into new market with Maps Navigation beta for Android

The BlackBerry lives on

Did you know that RIM Technologies, the Canadian-based producer of the BlackBerry, has had 77% revenue growth and an 84% increase in profits 84% over the past three years? For all the hype and hoopla over the iPhone and the Android, it seems that the ubitiquous BlackBerry is holding its own. Obviously, the consumer market has been dominated by other brands, such as Nokia, Qualcomm, LG and, of course, Apple.

But the commercial market is a significant portion of the market. It's not as interesting as a legacy media story, and the advances don't seem to attract as much attention. But the advances are significant, and they keep the wheels of commerce turning.

Changes in the browser landscape

On Saturday, Net Applications released usage statistics for the various browsers. ComputerWorld's analysis is that Firefox and Safari are bearing the brunt of Chrome's entree into the marketplace.

I disagree.

This graph depicts the market share of each browser by month for the past 10 months. Based on what we see here, the one taking the hit from Chrome is Internet Explorer (all versions). Certainly, we see that Firefox is not growing like it was before, but it hasn't lost significant share to any alternative application. The same can be said for Safari and, for that matter, Opera.

This explains why Microsoft has moved so aggressively into content-related deals and applications. Bing and Yahoo! represent the best opportunities for the company to protect some part of the internet turf from Google.

Data Source: Browser Statistics, compiled by Market Share

Microsoft closes in on IE8 Release

Internet Explorer 8 is set for final release some time this week. The big question is ... will anyone care?? According to a recent survey of almost 52,000 people inside enterprises (conducted by Forrester), 78% use IE. Of those 40,000 users, only 39% are using IE7, leaving over 60% still using the more reliable version 6.

More than 20% of enterprise customers utilize a browser other than Internet Explorer, and Microsoft's share in the browser war has been shrinking for some time now (see my earlier post here). My gut tells me that people that have already switched to Firefox, Chrome or Safari will not return to Internet Explorer regardless of how it has improved. Of course, the fact that IE ships ... as the default browser ... with Windows will help Microsoft retain market share. But that will not change the inevitable "evening out" of market share across the major browsers.

Firefox 3.5 moves into "late" beta

Mozilla is moving closer to a general release of the next version of Firefox -- currently listed as v3.5. Most industry observers believe that the general release is still a couple of months away. The organization released a 3^rd beta last week ... on March 12, 2009 ... requesting feedback on a number of fairly technical features. For example, the Mozilla Blog includes the following as a feature for the testing community to review:

Support for new web technologies such as the <video> and <audio> elements, the W3C Geolocation API, JavaScript query selectors, CSS 2.1 and 3 properties, SVG transforms and offline applications.

Really ... don't worry if you don't know what that means.

The real news is that Mozilla is fully engaged in the browser war that's currently underway. Microsoft is on the verge of releasing the new Internet Explorer 8, Apple has offered Safari 4 in beta ... and of course no one can forget Google's offering in the browser market: Chrome.

For those of us in the technology world, it means that application architecture & testing plans must account for all of these potential delivery platforms. This will increase the importance of abstracting the application layer (logic) from the presentation layer (user interface).

Furthermore, business leaders will need to budget for the added development time & expense associated with being compatible with four browsers. This is especially important for customer-facing applications, for which the choice of browser is somewhat unpredictable and completely uncontrollable.

The Mozilla Blog: Firefox beta now available
The Webware blog @ CNET: Mozilla says next Firefox likely months away

Microsoft continues its pursuit of Google

The current standings in Internet search are ...

1. Google -- 58.8%
2. Yahoo! -- 22.2%
3. Microsoft - 9.8%

Based on my years' of observing the Redmond, WA company, they don't like to be second place at all, much less in third place. Once they set their sites on a competitive target, they normally catch up within 2 years. For instance, Lotus 1-2-3 was the de facto spreadsheet standard for almost a decade. Then Excel rendered it irrelevant. The same can be said for WordPerfect. For years, SQL Server was not even part of the enterprise database engine conversation. It was Oracle, IBM, or nothing. But Microsoft rolled up their sleeves and turned MS SQL Server into a robust and scalable platform.

For whatever reason, they just haven't been able to translate that track record into search engine supremacy. Even as the various installations of Internet Explorer come pre-configured to use Microsoft's search engine, Google still dominates the market. Certainly, it's no accident that "Google" is now virtually a verb in the English language.

So it makes me wonder about a recent lead from Microsoft that internal staff are being encouraged to test out Kumos, their next search engine. One of the bloggers at the Wall Street Journal recounts an internal memo that states:

In spite of the progress made by search engines, 40% of queries go unanswered; half of queries are about searchers returning to previous tasks; and 46% of search sessions are longer than 20 minutes. These and many other learnings suggest that customers often don’t find what they need from search today.

I don't know about you, but I find these numbers to be unrealistic. If search queries were that unsuccessful, then they would not be the most common method of finding information on the web. And "Google" would definitely NOT have reached the status of Kleenex, Xerox and Band-aid in the American lexicon.

Obviously, Microsoft believes there is real value in being the search engine of choice. But I'm not so sure it's worth the development, marketing and support costs. Google has become a habit for nearly 60% of users. And they earned that position by being the first to market, and by producing consistently good results.

Articles from the Wall Street Journal Online (links may require registration):

• Digits blog @ WSJ
• Microsoft begins search engine testing

Microsoft Internal Memo: All Things D

Microsoft Corp.: MSFT (NASDAQ)
Google, Inc.: GOOG (NASDAQ)
Yahoo! Inc. YHOO (NASDAQ)

YouTube considers a fee-based option

YouTube is said to be testing an option in which video owners can choose if their works will be downloaded, either for free or for a small fee (handled by Google Checkout). In the short term, this means iTunes will start to have competition for premium video content. But in the longer-term, this development will make it easier to share valuable (as in, people will pay for it) video across the medium. It also means that more high quality content will be made available as the talented producers will be able to generate some compensation for their work.

The download option is important because it will allow off-line viewing of the videos, which will make those long flights easier to handle -- provided you plan ahead, of course. Plus, all kinds of content, from training videos to sermons could be made far more useful to consumers with this option.

Keep an eye on this development. It's a potential revenue stream for Google, and the creation of an incentive for talented videographers.

Google, Inc: GOOG (NASDAQ)

Google expands its email offerings

Google has announced the test-release of an important email feature: Off-line access. This may not seem like such a big deal to the average corporate user. After all, we've been using email on the plane for years now, sync-ing up when we get to a network connection. But G-Mail is different. There is nothing on your PC... it's all on the internet. This is the foundation of cloud computing and this release represents a radical strategic exception for Google, which has stake its future on cloud computing.

The bottom line is that Google needed to do this if wants to be a serious player in the corporate market. Consumers will tolerate not being able to read their email when there's no network, but business users will not. "This is a feature we've heard loud and clear the enterprise wants," said Todd Jackson, Gmail's product manager.

But will it be enough to move large corporate customers off of the industry standard, Microsoft Exchange? Will it even be enough to move small companies away from other open source, but more traditionally architected solutions? I'm not so sure.

Email is the mission critical application of modern business. You can survive having your A/P system down for a day. But take away email and you'll see everyone from the CEO to the receptionist gathering torches and pitchforks on their way to the data center. There are very good reasons why Exchange has earned its place as the market leader:

• It's highly reliable
• Tolerant of administrator and user mistakes, and
• Very straightforward when it comes to recovery.

Who in their right mind would want to mess with that? This is the hill that Google is trying to climb. And, given the current climate, I suspect that very few decision makers will risk making that kind of change.

For more information: A blog post on CNet

Google announces a profitable fourth quarter

Somehow, someway, Google was able to record a reasonable profit in 4Q2008. According to their press release:

“Google performed well in the fourth quarter, despite an increasingly difficult economic environment. Search query growth was strong, revenues were up in most verticals, and we successfully contained costs,” said Eric Schmidt, CEO of Google. “It's unclear how long the global downturn will last, but our focus remains on the long term, and we'll continue to invest in Google's core search and ads business as well as in strategic growth areas such as display, mobile, and enterprise.”

Other highlights of the announcement include:

• Total Revenue of $5.70 billion in the fourth quarter of 2008... an 18% increase over fourth quarter 2007 revenues.
• Operating income was $1.86 billion, or 33% of revenues, in the quarter.
• Net cash provided by operating activities for the fourth quarter of 2008 totaled $2.12 billion.

Today, the stock closed at $306.50, up $3.42, for a gain of 1.13%.

Even as the world economy struggled in the latter half of 2008, Google managed to post improvements over 2007. I know of no other company that was able to manage that feat. Their productive is no longer seen as a discretionary item. They are indispensable to businesses and consumers... at least for now. And that is the secret to success in any market!

Read the Press Release from Google.
Google Inc.: GOOG (NASDAQ)

Browser choices change dramatically in 2008

Over the past year, surveys indicate that a dramatic shift is underway in the choice of browsers. According to a study published by Net Applications Microsoft's Internet Explorer has lost over 10% of global market share. About two-thirds of those users have changed to Firefox, while most of the rest have moved over to Safari (by Apple). The results are summarized in the chart, showing browsers that garnered at least 0.01% of the market.

The survey results are significant in several ways.

• First, Firefox now commands -- for the first time in its history -- a 20+% market share. This means that Microsoft's attempt to be the pre-eminent gateway to the Internet has failed. IE's lack of innovation and poor quality has cemented this fact for the firm.
• Second, Google's new browser, Chrome, went from zero to 0.30% of the market in less than nine months. This speaks volumes about Google's ability to influence the market and stands in stark contrast to Microsoft's failure in this regard.
• Third, Playstation is on the list. Let me repeat that. Playstation ... a gaming console ... has earned 0.04% of the market in 2008; which is double their market share from the previous year. Whoever said that TV/Internet convergence is dead was premature.
• Finally, as IE fades, the door will swing just a bit wider for Linux desktops in the corporate environment. Firefox has earned its place as the default browser choice for Linux PC's with excellent quality and innovation over the several years.

Microsoft: MSFT (NASDAQ)
Google: GOOG (NASDAQ)
Apple: AAPL (NASDAQ)

Google and SalesForce expand their alliance.

SalesForce.com and Google are at it again. Having first formed an alliance last July (2007), the companies have announced an expansion of this relationship. It is meant to further integrate the applications available through Google Apps into the Force.com development platform.

It remains to be seen what developers will cook up with this new alliance. However, it is a logical convergence between the two firms. For instance, Google's finance data could easily be available from within SalesForce.com, allowing a salesperson to have a quick read on a firm's current state while preparing for a sales call.

Link to the announcement from eWeek:
Google, Salesforce.com Partner on Cloud Computing