Tuesday, January 20, 2009

Some big names won't be around in 2010

A recent survey by CIO Insight identified twelve companies that will either fold or be acquired in 2009. 200 participants were asked to indicate which companies, out of a choice of more than 20, would encounter one of those fates this year. The results are in the graph below.

A few surprises for me.
  • Salesforce.com - It's hard for me to imagine that 19% of respondents picked them to go away this year. Their growth has been fairly steady, and at times spectacular. And I don't see Oracle or Microsoft wanting to pick acquire a product that competes with their in-house apps. Their alliance with Google bears watching, though.
  • AMD - As far I can tell, there is no other viable competitor to Intel. And the market is too big for just one player.
  • CA - This company, formerly known as Computer Associates, isn't going anywhere. Their strategy has been growth through acquisition for nearly two decades, and that kind of culture makes them a very unlikely target.

The other big names on the list are, in my opinion, very much in play for this year. Few will go out of business, but at least one or two will end up in a deal. From this list, I'd expect Citrix, Juniper and Checkpoint to be the most likely acquisition targets. Novell is part of Microsoft's Linux Defense strategy, but it provides no other real benefit to society. Expect that product to be even less relevant a year from now.

CIO Insight survey results: Dire Predictions
Survey Methodology: How the survey was conducted

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